LDK 08Q2 earning estimation: 0.57 USD/share

My estimation:

Total revenue: 311- 316 M USD,
Net income: 62-65 M,
EPS: 0.56-0.58/share

Here are my Calculations:

Total revenue:
Total revenue of the first half year 2008: 3800 M Chinese Yuan (CNY),First quarter: 233. 40 M USD = 1680 M CNY (I used the exchange rate of 1 USD = 7.2 CNY at that time)So this quarter revenue: 3800 M – 1680 M = 2120 M, equals to 311 M, ( 1 USD = 6.85 CNY now).

Net income:

Last quarter, LDK net margin was 21.3%, I use 20% for this Q, so 311 M *20% = 62 M net income,EPS: 62 M / 110 M shares = 0.56 /share

This has been confirmed by another piece of information: LDK 08Q2 revenue has been increased 190% over the same quarter last year (in CNY).

Last year, 07Q2 revenue was 99.05 M USD, at that time, exchange rate was 1USD = 7.5 CNY), so the revenue was 99.05 M USD * 7.5 = 743 M CNY,

if this quarter is 190% increased over that Q, then the revenue would be 742 M * (1+ 1.9) = 2152 M CNY for the current Q, which means 316 M USD (2152 M CNY /6.81 = 316 M),

Based on 316 M revenue, the net income would be 63.2 M USD, EPS would be 0.58/share, Therefore, My estimation of 08Q2 is :

0.57 USD/share

赛维LDK公司上半年国税收入突破亿元及最新消息

为助推赛维LDK公司发展，实现税收收入，经济开发区国税部门尽可能为LDK公司及光伏产业链提供税收服务便利，通过实行纳税辅导、开展新企业所得税法宣传、开通税收服务直通车等方式做好全方位的税收服务工作。目前，赛维LDK公司税收出现良好的发展势头，至6月中旬，已入库所得税1.24亿元。 以赛维LDK公司硅料、硅片为核心，以延伸产业链为主攻方向，进一步强化服务体系建设，成立主要领导为组长的专门服务领导小组，编发专门快报，加强工作调度，举全区之力扶持光伏产业快速发展，光伏新能源产业主导地位进一步凸显。到6月底，预计实现主营业务收入38亿元，同比增长190%，占全区的39.6％，同比增加16.8个百分点。光伏产业项目进展非常顺利，赛维LDK公司多晶硅片产能已达到600MW，继续保持亚洲第一、世界第二的领先地位；赛维公司三期1600MW硅片项目共需建34栋厂房，今年开工建设28栋，现有18栋厂房和仓库主体工程基本完成，部分厂房已安装设备，年底产能将达到1100MW以上，2009年产能可达到2000MW。第四期多晶硅片项目已完成征地， 正在进行土方平整等前期准备工作；N型单晶硅项目5月份正式开工，预计今年10月份设备进厂，年底投产，可形成200MW的生产能力；15000吨硅料项目正抓紧厂房及附属设施建设， 基建部分施工已完成年内计划数的85%以上，设备已订购，首期5000吨硅料项目预计10月底之前可投产，2009年全部建成，产能达到1.6万吨；年产10万只坩埚的中材新材料二期计划6月27日主体工程开工建设，2009年3月份投产。

Estimation based on Tax information

Here is my version based on tax information:

By the mid-June LDK has paid 124 M CNY tax. If we consider at least another half month to 20 days, they will have to pay 8-10% more that will be 135 M CNY (124/11 * 12 = 136 M or 124 * 1.09 = 135 M).

first Q tax was 8.511 M USD = 60.43 M CNY (exchange rate ws 7.1 at that time), then Q2 tax paid was: 135 M - 60.43 = 74.57 M CNY, which is 10.95 M USD (rate: 6.81 now).

Then based on 14.5% taxation rate (based on last Q), the net income would be 11.097M /0.145 * 0.855= 64.5 M,divided by 110 M shares, EPS is 0.58, which also agrees with my 0.56-0.58 range.